Tracy Lee Parker

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August
23

The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today.  DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.

 

And what a difference a month makes.  Last month, DFW led the U.S. for home price increases, with June prices up 29.3% over the previous year.   In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021.   Homes in DFW spend an average of 23 days on the market before selling.

 

Higher interest rates and inflation, as well as record home prices, triggered a sharp drop in demand for housing, said Todd Luong, a realtor with Re/Max DFW Associates:  "Here at our Re/Max office in Dallas-Fort Worth, our listings are currently getting on average 2.7 showings per week," Luong said. "Last year, at this same time, our listings were earning on average 5.9 showings per week. That is a huge drop in buyer demand compared to the previous year. Record home prices and higher mortgage rates have forced many potential buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers."

 

While the latest trends may disappoint some sellers, buyers now have more choices and better opportunities for good deals, Luong said.   Luong said that the DFW housing market has been challenged with low inventory for years and reached an all-time low earlier this year, with only a two-week supply. Now, however, inventory is increasing.  "Although buyers have more choices now, it is still not a balanced market as we only have about a two-month housing supply," Luong said. "In a normal market, you have about a five to six-month supply of housing."

 

A new report from Zillow also found falling home values, although the numbers didn't match Re/Max's precisely because of different study methods and different geographic definitions of DFW as a metro area, among other reasons.  According to Zillow's findings, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area's typical home value is $396,904, down 1.1% since June, the first month of decline. Values are up 55.4% since July 2019.

 

Zillow also reported that the mortgage payment on a typical home in DFW is $2,633 a month, including taxes and insurance. That's up 77.4% compared to July 2019.

According to Zillow, inventory in DFW has risen 10.2% since June, and the share of listings with a price cut in July was 22%, compared to 15.6% in June.  Nationwide, after two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell for the first time since 2012 as competition for houses eased, according to Zillow's July market report.

 

The slowdown is being driven by decreased competition among buyers. Zillow's analysis says that affordability pressures have pushed many to the sidelines, and buyers are waiting in the wings to resume their search if and when prices relax a bit.  Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, called the flattening of home values "a badly needed rebalancing.  This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates," Olsen said. "As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.'"

 

Luong said he sees positive signs in the market.  The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% after peaking in June. More than 290,000 new jobs were added in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, so North Texas has one of the strongest labor markets in the country.   "Reasonably priced homes that are in good condition and move-in ready are still selling very fast," he said. "However, the bidding wars have subsided considerably across the board."

  • Dallas Business Journal, August 19, 2022
July
25

While higher mortgage rates have driven many buyers out of the North Texas housing market, home prices still soared in June more than in other red-hot U.S. metros.  The median home price in Dallas-Fort Worth reached $426,000 in June, up 29.3% from $329,500 in June 2021, according to REMAX's just-released national housing report.  

U.S. home prices were up 11% from a year ago.  D-FW saw the largest year-over-year increase in median sale price among the 53 metro areas analyzed by the brokerage. Some major markets, such as Austin, are not included in the report.  Home sales were down 11.8% in the metro area, with nearly 10,000 transactions, according to RE/MAX. Home inventory has nearly doubled from a year ago to 14,404 properties. Even with the sharp increase year over year, prices were down slightly from May. 

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices still soaring

Of all 53 metro areas RE/MAX analyzed, the company found Dallas-Fort Worth's median home price grew the most from June 2021 to June 2022.

Table with 4 columns and 5 rows. Currently displaying rows 1 to 5.

Market

June 2022

June 2021

% change

1

Dallas-Fort Worth

$426,000

$329,500

29%

2

Tampa, FL

$385,000

$300,990

28%

3

Fayetteville, AR

$343,580

$270,000

27%

4

Las Vegas, NV

$445,000

$365,000

22%

5

Orlando, FL

$395,000

$325,000

22%

Table: Mitchell Parton/DMN  Source: Re/Max National Housing Report  

Mark Wolfe, owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates, said homes are still selling over list price, especially in places like Collin County and Denton County. Some offers will even come in as much as $60,000 over list price when they are the only offer, a carryover from the busier market when buyers had to offer above the asking price if they wanted to get a home.  

People relocating from California have no problem paying $50,000 to $100,000 over list price to make sure they get the home they want, and they will still see it as a good deal, Wolfe said.  "Especially in the northern suburbs, we have a tremendous amount of California homebuyers," he said. "They're flushed with cash." 

Nationally, home sales dropped 17.6% since last June and inventory grew for a third consecutive month, up 34.1% from May.  "The market is moving toward greater balance, especially with inventory gains and the slowing of price appreciation. The past few years have been one of the most competitive times ever for buyers — and we're finally seeing conditions ease up," Nick Bailey, president and CEO of RE/MAX, said in a statement.  

Wolfe said that a quarter of all listings on the market in D-FW are now seeing price reductions, as homes aren't selling as quickly as sellers and agents expect. Homes seeing price drops were likely overpriced to begin with, he said.  The number of showings per listing at Wolfe's offices are down from eight each week last year to an average of three now. Homes are taking weeks instead of days to sell, and more inventory is available.  "But three showings a week is really still a good market," Wolfe said. "It's a little bit more of a normal market than the boom we've had for the last two years."

  • Dallas Morning News, July 18, 2022
June
15

Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

Rapid Home price growth in North Texas and in cities nationwide continued to break records at the start of the year, but economists expect the market could change its tune in the months ahead.  Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March while national prices grew 20.6%, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.   "Demand for homes has stubbornly kept ahead of supply this spring, even in the face of rapidly rising costs," said Dan Handy, an economic data analyst for Zillow. "This imbalance between supply and demand for homes this spring has been the key driver in home price growth that continues to set records month after month."  The index compares sales price changes of specific properties over time. Case-Shiller's price estimate is considered more accurate than MLS home sales data which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.  

Economists predict the rapid price growth could finally begin to slow in the coming months as buyer demand is softened by affordability challenges.  "Mortgage costs are more than 50% higher than they were a year ago, and prospective buyers will likely start to rethink what they can afford," Handy said. "Sellers may already be responding, with the rate of price cuts now on the rise, to meet buyers where they are. Price growth will likely begin to come back towards earth as many buyers are priced out and inventory rises."  Dallas-Fort Worth home showings were down 9% year over year in April and 11% since March, according to ShowingTime.

  • Dallas Morning News, May 31, 2022
June
14

Nearly one in five sellers dropped prices during the four week period ended May 22, Redfin Corp. said in a report Thursday. Other measures of how hot the market is, including a house's time on market and the percentage of homes selling above listing price, have also plateaued.  Consumers are contending with some of the highest mortgage rates in years, despite the dip in those figures in the past two weeks. Higher rates, coupled with economic uncertainty, are raising questions about whether the US housing boom has met its limit with signs emerging that the once-intense pace of the market could be decelerating.

  • Bloomberg Business Week, May 26, 2022
June
10

Price drops are "becoming increasingly common" in some of the most popular housing markets across the United States.  According to a new Redfin data. More than 20% of home sellers dropped their price in May in some of the best markets in the nation.   "When mortgage rates were at or belw 3%, both local and out-of-town homebuyers were more than willing to tolerate high prices, but at more than 5%, many are now priced out," redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement.  "A home's price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, and when demand drops off and supply increases like it is now, rapid price increases evaporate quickly."  Areas that saw a huge surge in migration and sharp increases in home prices over the past two years are now seeing "an abrupt drop-off in demand," which is forcing sellers to "drop their prices with increasing frequency," Fairweather said.

  • Fox Business, May 31, 2022
June
5

 

  • The supply of homes for sale jumped 9% last week compared with the same week one year ago, according to Realtor.com.
  • Real estate brokerage Redfin also reported that new listings rose twice as fast in the four weeks ended May 15 as they did during the same period a year ago.
  • Pending home sales, still good, but dropping

Sharply higher mortgage rates have caused a sudden pullback in home sales, and now sellers are rushing to get in before the red-hot market cools off dramatically.   "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.

Sellers clearly see the market softening. Pending home sales were down just over 9% from April 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. May 2022 will see a larger decrease. This index measures signed contracts on existing homes, not closings, so it is perhaps the most timely indicator of how buyers are reacting to higher mortgage rates. It marks the sixth straight month of sales declines and the slowest pace in nearly a decade.

  • CNBC, May 27, 2022
June
4

Local housing supply is beginning to loosen, Realtor.com indicates

Dallas-Fort Worth is seeing a dramatic increase in homes up for sale over the last few weeks as many sellers look to take advantage of the market while it's still red hot.   The number of active home listings last week spiked 41.6% from a year prior, the fifth consecutive week of gains, according to Realtor.com. Until April, the company posted supply declines in D-FW every week since March 2020.

The region saw the highest annual growth for any week on record since the company began tracking this figure in 2017.

New listings in D-FW rose 32.4% last week, signaling a huge influx of sellers putting homes on the market as summer approaches.  "Sellers have been hearing for about two years what an amazing time it is for them to sell ... and they've seen their equity just grow like crazy," said Mike Reddell, senior executive vice president and managing director for Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Dallas. "With the stock market being wobbly and mortgage rates rising, I think sellers that have been thinking about this for a while, more of them are pulling the trigger and putting the house up for sale."

Reddell said if he were in a position to sell his house, he would do it right now.

Redfin reported May 15 that new listings throughout the U.S. climbed nearly twice as quickly as they did at the same time last year.   "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin, said in a statement.

Mark Wolfe, broker and owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates, said he has seen a significant spike in listings over the past few months. In his home city of Coppell, he said, there would have been only about five or six homes on the market at any one time a few months ago. In just five days last week, he said, 21 homes went up for sale.  "We've been a boom economy, and now with the economy showing signs of trouble, people want to still get the most for their dollar while they can if they think that the prices might go down," Wolfe said. "I don't know if that's going to happen. I doubt that's going to happen."

The market is nowhere near balanced between buyers and sellers. Dallas-Fort Worth had just under a month of home supply in April, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. A balanced market would have about six months' worth of inventory.   The competitive pressures have sustained high price growth over the past few months. The median home in April sold for $425,576, up 25% from a year earlier. The number of sales in April was down 7% from a year ago, but the dollar volume increased 13% to $4.2 billion.

Rising mortgage rates combined with record-high home prices have drastically increased the monthly cost of buying a home. Homebuilders have also noticed demand cool down through the past few months.  "We've been in an unrealistic market for two years, and we're probably headed back to a normal market," Wolfe said. "It might be nice to just have a healthy even market. I'm hopeful that's what we're going to go into."

  • Dallas Morning News, May 31, 2022
June
3

Housing Prices in DFW and Austin Have Surged Dramatically

The last time the national housing bubble burst, Dallas-Fort Worth and the state of Texas emerged comparatively unscathed from the massive 2008 home price corrections and foreclosure wave that slammed most of the country, including other Sunbelt markets like San Diego, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

A big reason was that home prices in the Lone Star State didn't skyrocket in the early 2000s preceding the subprime-mortgage-induced smackdown by nearly as much as prices in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. Texas hadn't partied as hard as its Sunbelt compadres heading into the crash, so its hangover wasn't as bad.

This time, Texas — DFW and Austin especially — may not be so lucky if the national housing boom is a bubble and a popping ensues, a new study suggests.  This time, housing prices in DFW and Austin, and to a lesser degree Houston and San Antonio, have surged, driven in large part by population and jobs growth spurred by companies large and small relocating to the state.

As of April 30, Austin was the second most overpriced housing market in the nation, and DFW was the 18th most overpriced, according to research by Florida Atlantic University.    The recent heavy demand for homes put buyers at a "major disadvantage," said Ken H. Johnson, an economist in FAU's College of Business. To have an offer accepted, buyers had to outbid multiple competitors, he points out.  Soaring prices fueled by the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and near-record-low mortgage rates have pushed the national housing market into a "crisis stage," and a reckoning is due, the Florida Atlantic researchers' latest report says.

On one hand, the reckoning will likely hit the areas of the country with the biggest run-ups the hardest. On the other hand, areas of the country with persistent inventory shortages and increases in population, such as Texas, Florida and parts of the Northwest, likely won't see as steep of declines in home values, the researchers say. 

  • Dallas Business Journal, May 28, 2022

 

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